It's the competency, stupid
The takeaways from tonight's wins for the GOP in New Jersey and Virginia and Hoffman's loss in NY23?
- All politics is still local. Palin and Pawlenty couldn't elect Hoffman in New York, and Obama couldn't re-elect Corzine in New Jersey.
- Competency matters. Hoffman flubbed some questions on local issues at his last debate, and Corzine is surrounded by corruption. Unless you're able to show you're up to the task, don't even bother with announcing your candidacy.
- There is such a thing as too many negative ads, and Creigh Deeds proved it tonight.
- The Blue Dogs in the House are watching, and they're seeing a liberal Republican get tossed from her own party and two Democratic-leaning states elect Republican governors. I expect Nancy Pelosi's email inbox will be crammed to capacity tonight with warnings from Congressmen like our very own Harry Mitchell, cautioning her against throwing them under the bus in her quest to pass Obamacare.
Update: Geraghty concurs: It comes down to who is the best candidate for the people casting the ballots, not who is the biggest player on a national level.
I'm sad for Doug, he seemed like a good guy and of the kind we need more of in Congress, rather than professional pols. But I think his loss has as much to do with union backing of Owens becoming united after DeDe Arnold's endorsement of Owens as it does with his shaky knowledge of local issues.
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Doug Hoffman just got an education on something that this South Dakota native and South Dakota politicians (Both Dem and GOP) know instinctively: Rhetorical flourishes to "do what's right for the country" can only go so far if you refuse to help South Dakotans get something in return.
A John McCain or a Doug Hoffman would've gone nowhere in my home state, and their stubbornness and stumbling (respectively) would've been their downfall. And Dick Armey has got to realize that not every GOP district is like his old suburban Dallas-Ft.Worth district, where the voters were willing to tolerate a straight-shooter like Armey since they got little-to-nothing from FedGov.
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It is interesting to see how much people try to read into a mess like the NY-23 race.
A few weeks ago Doug Hoffman was unknown. He had no organizational backing. He had limited resources. He got into the race because a small group of GOP insiders put up a flaming Liberal disguised as a Republican.
Then Armey, Palin, and a few others took notice. After this he surged to the point that Sozzafava was forced from the race. Even though she validated where her loyalties lay by endorsing the Democrat, and pocketed the $1mil the GOP had provided to her, Hoffman nearly pulled it off.
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