Trippi-ng along merrily
Joe Trippi follows up his cautionary note to the Democratic faithful regarding Sarah Palin with a rousing "We can still win this one, people!" call to arms.
- Polls are likely underestimating the turnout of
young voters because many of these voters use cell phones and pollsters
are having a difficult time including their views with accuracy. Obama
has a big advantage with these voters. As a potential tie-breaker –
ADVANTAGE OBAMA.
- Polls are likely underestimating African-American
turnout in the election for the same reason. Many of these households
have cell phones instead of landlines, have only recently been
registered to vote, or do not get through the screening questions of
pollsters including "did you vote in the last election?" As a potential
tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE OBAMA.
- The Bradley Effect. So named because when Tom
Bradley, the African-American Mayor of Los Angeles ran for Governor of
California polls showed him up by 10points – he lost the election.
Pollsters later determined that many white voters had failed to tell
pollsters the truth about how they intended to vote. I was Tom
Bradley’s Deputy Campaign Manager in 1982. I saw the "Bradley effect"
up close at the age of 26 – it was real. It is 26 years later and I can
tell you two things for sure it isn’t the minus 10 points that it was
in 1982 but it isn’t zero either. There will be an overestimation of
the number of white voters casting ballots for Obama. As a potential
tie-breaker – ADVANTAGE McCAIN.
Relying on the (non-existent) youth vote: The last refuge of the truly desperate politician.
I wonder if he's taken into consideration those who refuse to answer polls?
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Some of us in the 40-50 age group are pissed that we don't get polled cause we are all cell, too. And that includes the hubby and our 21 yo. There are just as many non-landline voters in other age brackets as there are 18-25 who plan on voting for the Zero... because what they fail to realize is that many 18-25 yos with cell phones who don't get polled are voting McCain. Absolute non-issue...
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